Fundamental | Macro
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
"The consumer price index, the main measure of inflation, which guides central bank decisions on interest rates."
In-Depth Definition
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It is the most closely watched inflation indicator in financial markets because it directly conditions the monetary policy of central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE…). High CPI generally leads to higher benchmark rates to contain inflation, strengthening the currency concerned but weighing on stocks and bonds. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) is often considered more representative of the structural inflationary trend. The monthly US CPI publication is one of the most volatile macroeconomic events for markets.
StarQuant Insight
StarQuant contextualizes CPI publications by crossing them with market expectations (breakeven inflation, inflation swaps) and central banker comments to assess the probability of a monetary policy revision and its impact on different asset classes.
Pro Tip
Follow CPI trends over 3 to 6 months rather than reacting to each monthly publication. The trend is more important than the point figure. A CPI that decelerates even slightly is often enough to trigger a bond rally.